Are Prediction Markets Legal in Hawaii?

Hawaii is one of only two states in the entire United States with zero legal gambling of any kind — no lottery, no commercial or tribal casinos, no licensed sportsbooks, no daily fantasy sports, no charitable gaming, no off-track betting. The Hawaii Constitution and Hawaii Revised Statutes Chapter 712 (opens in a new tab) define gambling as a misdemeanor offense and have done so since statehood in 1959. Sports-betting bills have been introduced in the Hawaii State Legislature in recent sessions, including HB 1815 (opens in a new tab) in 2024. In 2025, HB 1308 got as far as a joint conference committee, where the House and Senate could not agree on a final version, so it died (Courthouse News, 25 April 2025). Hawaii still has no licensed sportsbooks.

With no state sports betting, CFTC-regulated prediction markets are one of the few regulated options in Hawaii. Platforms argue that the Commodity Exchange Act↗ (opens in a new tab) puts their contracts under federal, not state, rules; courts are split on this. For Hawaii residents, CFTC-regulated event contracts are the main regulated way to trade on sports, elections, the economy and other events, because Hawaii has no state-licensed sportsbooks, lottery or casinos.

The Hawaii Attorney General's office has not challenged this preemption framework. AG Anne Lopez declined to join AG Campbell's multi-state coalition in November 2025, and her office has issued no enforcement action or formal guidance against any CFTC-regulated platform.

Why Hawaii matters for prediction markets

Three reasons:

1. No competing state-licensed product. In every other state with prediction markets, sportsbooks, lotteries or casinos compete for the same wallet. Hawaii has no state-licensed sportsbooks, lottery or casinos, so prediction markets do not compete with them for the same wallet.
2. State law in Hawaii prohibits gambling.
3. No DK/FD geofencing. Because no operator holds a Hawaii sportsbook license (none exist to acquire), DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets are all available statewide. Hawaii is the most platform-rich state on our list, alongside Minnesota and Alaska.

What Hawaii Residents Can Trade Right Now

Everything.

• Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and college football and basketball, including each game and season futures.
• Politics and elections: control of Congress, governor races and the 2028 presidential race.
• Economics: Fed rate decisions, inflation (CPI) and jobs reports.
• Weather, culture and crypto: temperatures, awards shows, box office and Bitcoin price ranges.

Hawaii-specific market depth is concentrated on national markets (NFL Super Bowl, NBA Finals, MLB World Series, NHL Stanley Cup, college football championships) — Hawaii has no major pro franchise but the University of Hawaii Rainbow Warriors generate strong local interest in NCAA football and basketball markets. Political market depth is strong around the Hawaii gubernatorial race and federal Senate races (Mazie Hirono, Brian Schatz).

Best Prediction Market Platforms for HI Residents

CFTC Designated Contract Market. The flagship platform.

DraftKings Predictions — Available in Hawaii (no DK HI sportsbook license to protect). Strong NFL and NBA depth.

Strong NFL depth.

Polymarket US — Strong political and macro depth. Funds in US dollars.

OG.com — Available with full sports catalog. Lower per-contract fees than Kalshi.

Eligibility Checklist for HI Residents

• 18+ on CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms.
• Government ID + SSN for KYC verification.
• US bank account or debit card.

Tax Treatment for HI Residents

• Federal: taxable, but the IRS↗ (opens in a new tab) hasn't issued guidance on event contracts; tax professionals argue for gambling income, capital gains or Section 1256 (60/40).
• Hawaii state: HI state income tax (1.4%–11% bracket — among the most progressive rates in the US) applies to taxable gains.
• HRS Chapter 712 does not apply to federally-regulated derivatives.

Local Sports Angle: Rainbow Warriors and Diaspora Fan Bases

Hawaii fans can currently trade event contracts on the University of Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (NCAA football and basketball), plus all national pro and college markets.

What could change the status

Dates we are watching: Nevada's responses to the Robinhood and Crypto.com Supreme Court petitions are now due November 13 and 16, 2026 (both extended in October), and Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition is due November 9, 2026 (deadlines can be extended); the earliest the Supreme Court could act on the petitions is a conference in December 2026 or January 2027 (our estimate, not a scheduled date); the Ninth Circuit has not yet decided Kalshi's request for a rehearing by the full court. We re-check this page when any of these happen and log the change above.

Sources

• Courthouse News: Hawaii lawmakers reject bill to legalize sports gambling (Courthouse News, 25 April 2025) (opens in a new tab)
• The Hill: Lawmakers ramp up fight against sports betting on prediction markets (opens in a new tab)
• Holland & Knight: Federal Appeals Court: CFTC Jurisdiction Over Sports Event Contracts (opens in a new tab)

Status in Hawaii as of October 3, 2026

Platform	Status	Why (source)	Welcome offer in Hawaii
Kalshi	Available, dispute pending	Kalshi accepts Hawaii residents; no Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $25 and Get $25!
Polymarket US	Available, dispute pending	Polymarket US accepts Hawaii residents; no Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
ProphetX	Available, dispute pending	ProphetX accepts Hawaii residents; no Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $50, Earn $75!
OG (by Crypto.com)	Available, dispute pending	OG accepts Hawaii residents; no Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $25 Get $50 in Rewards! (New users only)
Novig	Available, dispute pending	Novig accepts Hawaii residents; no Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Deposit $10 Get $50 in Trade Credits!
Rebet	Available, dispute pending	Rebet is a sweepstakes app, not a CFTC-regulated exchange; its sweepstakes rules include Hawaii. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Get a 100% purchase match up to $100!

What changed (newest first)

• Sep 25, 2026 (federal) — Sixth Circuit rules against Kalshi in Ohio and Tennessee appeals. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit (opinion, Nos. 26-3196/26-5235) (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 11, 2026 (federal) — Crypto.com asks Supreme Court to review Ninth Circuit ruling (No. 26-344). Source: Supreme Court of the United States, docket No. 26-344 (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 10, 2026 (federal) — Kalshi seeks Ninth Circuit rehearing; Robinhood petitions Supreme Court. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 2, 2026 (federal) — New Jersey asks U.S. Supreme Court to review Kalshi preemption ruling. Source: New Jersey Office of the Attorney General (opens in a new tab)
• Aug 28, 2026 (federal) — Ninth Circuit rules for Nevada regulators in Kalshi case. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (opinion, No. 25-7516) (opens in a new tab)
• Apr 6, 2026 (federal) — Third Circuit sides with Kalshi against New Jersey regulators. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit (opinion, No. 25-1922) (opens in a new tab)
• Feb 5, 2026 — Hawaii House committee advances bill to prohibit prediction markets. The House Committee on Consumer Protection and Commerce advanced HB 2198, which would define prediction markets on sports and other topics as illegal. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)

Prediction markets in other states

• Alaska
• California
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Florida
• Hawaii
• Illinois
• Kansas
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Minnesota
• Nebraska
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• New York
• North Dakota
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• Texas
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Washington
• Wyoming
• Alabama
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• Delaware
• Georgia
• Idaho
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• Montana
• Nevada
• New Mexico
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Puerto Rico
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Washington DC
• West Virginia
• Wisconsin

§ References & Sources

1. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (opens in a new tab)— U.S. federal regulator
2. CFTC Designated Contract Markets list (opens in a new tab)— CFTC
3. 26 U.S. Code § 1256 — Section 1256 contracts marked to market (opens in a new tab)— Cornell Law / U.S. Code
4. IRS Form 6781 — Gains and Losses From Section 1256 Contracts (opens in a new tab)— Internal Revenue Service
5. National Council on Problem Gambling — 1-800-GAMBLER (opens in a new tab)— NCPG

Frequently asked questions

Are prediction markets legal in Hawaii?

We don't give legal verdicts, but here is the status as of October 3, 2026: Kalshi, Polymarket US, ProphetX, OG and Novig: Available, dispute pending. No Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. Nationally, federal appeals courts are split on sports event contracts, all at the preliminary-injunction stage, and three Supreme Court petitions are pending; none has been granted.

Can I use Kalshi in Hawaii?

Status as of October 3, 2026: Available, dispute pending. Kalshi accepts Hawaii residents; no Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. Kalshi's welcome offer (Trade $25 and Get $25!) applies to Hawaii residents. Kalshi's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.

What has Hawaii done about prediction markets?

No Hawaii case was found (a bill to ban prediction markets advanced in committee in Feb 2026 but is not law); the Ninth Circuit, whose rulings bind its federal courts, ruled on Aug 28, 2026 (preliminary stage) that Kalshi had not shown federal law overrides state gaming law for sports contracts, and Supreme Court petitions on that ruling are pending. Most recent entries in our timeline: Feb 5, 2026: Hawaii House committee advances bill to prohibit prediction markets. Each entry above links to its source.

What could change the status in Hawaii?

Dates we are watching: Nevada's responses to the Robinhood and Crypto.com Supreme Court petitions are now due November 13 and 16, 2026 (both extended in October), and Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition is due November 9, 2026 (deadlines can be extended); the earliest the Supreme Court could act on the petitions is a conference in December 2026 or January 2027 (our estimate, not a scheduled date); the Ninth Circuit has not yet decided Kalshi's request for a rehearing by the full court. We re-check this page when any of these happen and log the change above.