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Prediction Markets News

Legal, regulatory, and platform developments — tracked and contextualised by our editorial team.

Updated

Review due for refresh · Last update August 25, 2026

This week

3 updates

Legal April 21, 2026 Review due for refresh

Kalshi sports contract case moves toward Supreme Court review

A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi in New Jersey, but Maryland and Massachusetts ruled the other way — setting up a circuit split that could reach the Supreme Court by 2027.

Read full analysis

Market April 21, 2026 Review due for refresh

John Oliver dedicates 32-minute HBO segment to prediction markets

Last Week Tonight took aim at Kalshi and Polymarket. We respond to what he got right (responsible gambling gaps, insider trading) and what he got wrong.

Read full analysis

Market April 25, 2026 Review due for refresh

Kalshi prices Warsh as next Fed Chair at 96% after DOJ drops Powell probe

Odds of Kevin Warsh being confirmed Fed Chair by May 15 jumped from ~30% to 86% within hours of the DOJ closing its Powell inquiry, then cleared 96% the next day — a clean case study in real-time political repricing.

Read full analysis Source: CNBC (opens in a new tab)

Week of Apr 27 – May 3, 2026

3 updates

Breaking Legal April 28, 2026 Review due for refresh

CFTC and DOJ counter-sue Wisconsin over prediction-market crackdown

Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul sued Kalshi, Robinhood, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Crypto.com on April 23. Five days later the CFTC and DOJ counter-sued — the fifth state the agency has taken to court over event contracts.

Read full analysis Source: Bloomberg Law (opens in a new tab)

Platform April 28, 2026 Review due for refresh

Polymarket asks CFTC to bring its main exchange onshore in the US

Polymarket has filed for CFTC clearance to operate its main crypto-native exchange directly for US traders, going beyond the limited intermediated access available through QCX. Decision rests almost entirely with Chair Selig.

Read full analysis Source: Bloomberg (opens in a new tab)

Regulatory April 27, 2026 Review due for refresh

WaPo / AP investigation puts insider-trading pressure on Kalshi and Polymarket

Reporting documents a US service member betting on a Venezuela operation, politicians wagering on their own elections, and large positions on an Iran ceasefire just before it was announced. Both platforms promised expanded surveillance.

Read full analysis Source: Washington Post (opens in a new tab)

Week of Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2026

1 update

Regulatory February 14, 2026 Review due for refresh

CFTC files friend-of-court brief asserting federal preemption

The CFTC formally argued that its jurisdiction over event contracts preempts state gambling regulations, strengthening Kalshi's position in active state litigation.

Week of Jan 5 – Jan 11, 2026

1 update

Platform January 8, 2026 Review due for refresh

FanDuel Predicts adds non-sports contracts

FanDuel Predicts added non-sports event contracts. Its sports contracts are offered only in some states, so check FanDuel Predicts for yours.

Week of Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2025

1 update

Platform November 12, 2025 Review due for refresh

DraftKings exits American Gaming Association

DraftKings (and FanDuel shortly after) left the AGA after the trade group opposed prediction markets — choosing CFTC federal access over the industry's primary trade body.