Prediction Markets News
Legal, regulatory, and platform developments — tracked and contextualised by our editorial team.
This week
3 updatesKalshi prices Warsh as next Fed Chair at 96% after DOJ drops Powell probe
Odds of Kevin Warsh being confirmed Fed Chair by May 15 jumped from ~30% to 86% within hours of the DOJ closing its Powell inquiry, then cleared 96% the next day — a clean case study in real-time political repricing.
Week of Apr 27 – May 3, 2026
3 updatesCFTC and DOJ counter-sue Wisconsin over prediction-market crackdown
Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul sued Kalshi, Robinhood, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Crypto.com on April 23. Five days later the CFTC and DOJ counter-sued — the fifth state the agency has taken to court over event contracts.
Polymarket asks CFTC to bring its main exchange onshore in the US
Polymarket has filed for CFTC clearance to operate its main crypto-native exchange directly for US traders, going beyond the limited intermediated access available through QCX. Decision rests almost entirely with Chair Selig.
WaPo / AP investigation puts insider-trading pressure on Kalshi and Polymarket
Reporting documents a US service member betting on a Venezuela operation, politicians wagering on their own elections, and large positions on an Iran ceasefire just before it was announced. Both platforms promised expanded surveillance.
Week of Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2026
1 updateCFTC files friend-of-court brief asserting federal preemption
The CFTC formally argued that its jurisdiction over event contracts preempts state gambling regulations, strengthening Kalshi's position in active state litigation.
Week of Jan 5 – Jan 11, 2026
1 updateFanDuel Predicts expands to all 50 states
FanDuel Predicts now offers non-sports event contracts nationwide, with sports contracts available in 18 states including Texas, California, Florida, and Georgia.
Week of Nov 10 – Nov 16, 2025
1 updateDraftKings exits American Gaming Association
DraftKings (and FanDuel shortly after) left the AGA after the trade group opposed prediction markets — choosing CFTC federal access over the industry's primary trade body.