Prediction Markets in Michigan

Michigan's Established Mobile Sports Betting Market

Michigan launched mobile sports betting in January 2021 under the 2019 Lawful Sports Betting Act. The market is robust: 15+ licensed mobile sportsbook operators including FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, ESPN BET, and Fanatics Sportsbook are live. Michigan generated over $7 billion in mobile sports wagering handle in 2025 and produced approximately $90M in state tax revenue.

This established legal market is a key part of why Michigan has taken a more aggressive enforcement stance than states without legal sports betting (like Georgia or California). The state's argument, in essence, is that prediction markets are competing in a regulated market without bearing the licensing costs, tax burden, or compliance overhead that licensed Michigan sportsbooks must carry.

What Michigan Residents Can Trade Right Now

As of April 2026, before the court orders described above, Michigan residents had access to:

• Sports event contracts on Kalshi, Robinhood, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, Fanatics Markets, and (where applicable) other DCMs — covering NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball, and major futures
• Politics contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US — including 2026 midterms (Michigan has competitive Senate and gubernatorial races), 2028 presidential election, and congressional control
• Economic and macro contracts — CPI, Fed decisions, jobs reports
• Crypto and culture — Bitcoin price targets, ETF approval, awards shows, box office

Michigan residents who use a licensed Michigan sportsbook (FanDuel, DK, BetMGM, etc.) for traditional bets and a CFTC-regulated DCM for event contracts and non-sports markets are operating in entirely separate regulatory regimes and tax categories.

Risk Considerations for Michigan Traders

Until the AG Nessel lawsuit is resolved, Michigan traders should understand a few risks:

1. A future court order could halt Kalshi sports contracts in MI. This happened later: a temporary restraining order (June 29, 2026) and a preliminary injunction (signed September 1, 2026) now require Kalshi to block sports contracts for Michigan residents.
2. Open positions could be affected. If a platform is forced to suspend MI accounts mid-event, contracts may be settled at last traded price, voided, or held until resolution per the platform's terms.
3. Tax obligations apply regardless. Michigan state income tax is a flat 4.25%. Net gains are reportable whether the platform issues a 1099 or not.
4. VPN use does not work and is prohibited. Geofencing is enforced by IP and device location. Using a VPN to bypass MI restrictions (if they are imposed) violates platform terms and can result in permanent account closure and fund forfeiture.

Best Platforms for Michigan Residents in 2026

Michigan traders should check in the app which markets are open to them.

Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated app, available in 49 states and D.C. Its welcome offer is not available in Michigan.

Robinhood offers Kalshi-routed contracts inside the familiar Robinhood app — same underlying contracts, same litigation risk, but a simpler interface for existing Robinhood brokerage users.

DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts are interesting in Michigan because both companies also operate licensed Michigan sportsbooks. For users who prefer the sportsbook-style interface, the Predictions products give MI residents access to combo (parlay) contracts and futures that complement their existing DK/FD sportsbook accounts.

What could change the status

Dates we are watching: Nevada's responses to the Robinhood and Crypto.com Supreme Court petitions are now due November 13 and 16, 2026 (both extended in October), and Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition is due November 9, 2026 (deadlines can be extended); the earliest the Supreme Court could act on the petitions is a conference in December 2026 or January 2027 (our estimate, not a scheduled date). We re-check this page when any of these happen and log the change above.

Best Platforms Compared

Status in Michigan as of October 3, 2026

Platform	Status	Why (source)	Welcome offer in Michigan
Kalshi	Sports contracts blocked by court order	A Michigan court preliminary injunction signed Sep 1, 2026 requires Kalshi to block sports contracts in Michigan, with a $500,000-a-day penalty; other Kalshi markets are not covered by the order. (source (opens in a new tab))	Not valid here
Polymarket US	Available, dispute pending	Polymarket US accepts Michigan residents; a Michigan court injunction signed Sep 1, 2026 requires Kalshi to block sports contracts, a federal court ruled for Michigan in Polymarket US's challenge (Jun 17, 2026), and Michigan is bound by the Sixth Circuit's Sep 25, 2026 ruling. (source (opens in a new tab))	Not valid in Michigan (partner terms, 27 Oct 2026)
ProphetX	Available, dispute pending	ProphetX accepts Michigan residents; a Michigan court injunction signed Sep 1, 2026 requires Kalshi to block sports contracts, a federal court ruled for Michigan in Polymarket US's challenge (Jun 17, 2026), and Michigan is bound by the Sixth Circuit's Sep 25, 2026 ruling. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $50, Earn $75!
OG (by Crypto.com)	Not offered	OG says it operates in every state but that some contracts are not available everywhere; Crypto.com said in Dec 2025 that it does not offer sports contracts in Michigan, and the OG welcome offer excludes Michigan. (source (opens in a new tab))	Not valid here
Novig	Not offered	Novig says it is available nationwide except Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, so it does not accept traders physically located in Michigan. (source)	Not valid here
Rebet	Not offered	Rebet is a sweepstakes app, not a CFTC-regulated exchange; its sweepstakes rules exclude Michigan. (source)	Not valid here

What changed (newest first)

• Sep 25, 2026 (federal) — Sixth Circuit rules against Kalshi in Ohio and Tennessee appeals. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit (opinion, Nos. 26-3196/26-5235) (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 11, 2026 (federal) — Crypto.com asks Supreme Court to review Ninth Circuit ruling (No. 26-344). Source: Supreme Court of the United States, docket No. 26-344 (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 10, 2026 (federal) — Kalshi seeks Ninth Circuit rehearing; Robinhood petitions Supreme Court. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 9, 2026 — Robinhood stops offering sports event contracts in Michigan. The Michigan Gaming Control Board said Robinhood agreed to stop offering new sports event contracts in the state and to close remaining positions in a month, pending an appeal. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 2, 2026 (federal) — New Jersey asks U.S. Supreme Court to review Kalshi preemption ruling. Source: New Jersey Office of the Attorney General (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 1, 2026 — Michigan court grants preliminary injunction against Kalshi. The Ingham County Circuit Court granted the state a preliminary injunction, signed on Sep 1, 2026, requiring Kalshi to block sports event contracts in Michigan using a third-party geolocation service until the court issues a final order, with a penalty of $500,000 a day for non-compliance. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)
• Aug 4, 2026 (federal) — Novig launches as a federally regulated sports prediction market. Source: The Closing Line (opens in a new tab)
• Jul 14, 2026 — CFTC stays Kalshi rule change made in response to Michigan court order. After a Michigan court directed Kalshi to cancel certain trades by Michigan residents, the CFTC stayed Kalshi's proposed emergency rule change and ordered it to fulfil the open trades. Source: CFTC press release 9267-26 (opens in a new tab)
• Jun 29, 2026 — Michigan court issues temporary restraining order against Kalshi sports contracts. An Ingham County Circuit Court judge granted the state a 14-day temporary restraining order barring Kalshi from offering sports event contracts in Michigan without a license and requiring third-party geolocation. Source: Event Horizon (opens in a new tab)
• Jun 17, 2026 — Federal court rules for Michigan in Polymarket US (QCX) suit. In QCX LLC v. Nessel (W.D. Source: New Jersey cert petition, No. 26-299 (footnote 3) (opens in a new tab)
• Mar 3, 2026 — Michigan Attorney General sues Kalshi. The Attorney General sued Kalshi in Ingham County Circuit Court, alleging it offers online sports betting without a license from the Michigan Gaming Control Board. Source: The Closing Line (opens in a new tab)
• Dec 15, 2025 (federal) — Crypto.com says it no longer offers sports contracts in nine states. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)

Prediction markets in other states

• Alaska
• California
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Florida
• Hawaii
• Illinois
• Kansas
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Minnesota
• Nebraska
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• New York
• North Dakota
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• Texas
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Washington
• Wyoming
• Alabama
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• Delaware
• Georgia
• Idaho
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• Montana
• Nevada
• New Mexico
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Puerto Rico
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Washington DC
• West Virginia
• Wisconsin

§ References & Sources

1. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (opens in a new tab)— U.S. federal regulator
2. CFTC Designated Contract Markets list (opens in a new tab)— CFTC
3. 26 U.S. Code § 1256 — Section 1256 contracts marked to market (opens in a new tab)— Cornell Law / U.S. Code
4. IRS Form 6781 — Gains and Losses From Section 1256 Contracts (opens in a new tab)— Internal Revenue Service
5. National Council on Problem Gambling — 1-800-GAMBLER (opens in a new tab)— NCPG

Frequently asked questions

Are prediction markets legal in Michigan?

We don't give legal verdicts, but here is the status as of October 3, 2026: Kalshi: sports contracts blocked by court order (other markets stay open); Polymarket US and ProphetX: Available, dispute pending; OG and Novig: not offered in Michigan. A Michigan court injunction signed Sep 1, 2026 requires Kalshi to block sports contracts, a federal court ruled for Michigan in Polymarket US's challenge (Jun 17, 2026), and Michigan is bound by the Sixth Circuit's Sep 25, 2026 ruling. Nationally, federal appeals courts are split on sports event contracts, all at the preliminary-injunction stage, and three Supreme Court petitions are pending; none has been granted.

Can I use Kalshi in Michigan?

Status as of October 3, 2026: Sports contracts blocked by court order. A Michigan court preliminary injunction signed Sep 1, 2026 requires Kalshi to block sports contracts in Michigan, with a $500,000-a-day penalty; other Kalshi markets are not covered by the order. We do not show Kalshi's welcome offer for Michigan. We do not show Polymarket US's welcome offer for Michigan either. Kalshi's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.

What has Michigan done about prediction markets?

A Michigan court injunction signed Sep 1, 2026 requires Kalshi to block sports contracts, a federal court ruled for Michigan in Polymarket US's challenge (Jun 17, 2026), and Michigan is bound by the Sixth Circuit's Sep 25, 2026 ruling. Most recent entries in our timeline: Sep 9, 2026: Robinhood stops offering sports event contracts in Michigan; Sep 1, 2026: Michigan court grants preliminary injunction against Kalshi; Jul 14, 2026: CFTC stays Kalshi rule change made in response to Michigan court order. Each entry above links to its source.

What could change the status in Michigan?

Dates we are watching: Nevada's responses to the Robinhood and Crypto.com Supreme Court petitions are now due November 13 and 16, 2026 (both extended in October), and Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition is due November 9, 2026 (deadlines can be extended); the earliest the Supreme Court could act on the petitions is a conference in December 2026 or January 2027 (our estimate, not a scheduled date). We re-check this page when any of these happen and log the change above.