What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets in the US are event contracts — regulated derivatives overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That's the same federal agency that regulates oil futures and S&P 500 options. They are not subject to state-by-state gambling laws.

Each contract has a price between 1¢ and 99¢. The price is the market's consensus probability. A YES share at 67¢ means the market thinks there's a 67% chance the event happens. If it does, every YES share pays out $1.

Every market is a binary YES/NO question with a defined resolution date. You buy the side you believe in. If you're right, your shares settle at $1 each. If you're wrong, they settle at $0.

You don't have to wait for resolution. Markets trade continuously, so you can sell your position at any time at the prevailing price — locking in profits or cutting losses just like any other tradable instrument.

US prediction markets cover a rapidly expanding list of real-world outcomes. The most active categories right now:

Yes — for federally regulated venues. The CFTC classifies event contracts as derivatives, which means platforms operating as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) are legal across all 50 states.

We only rank platforms with proper US regulatory standing. Avoid offshore or crypto-only books that don't comply with CFTC rules — your funds aren't protected and withdrawals can be blocked.

You can place your first trade in under 10 minutes.