Prediction Markets in Missouri

Missouri's Sports Betting Revolution: A New Era Begins

The landscape of legal wagering in Missouri transformed dramatically with the passage of Amendment 2 in November 2024. This paved the way for a regulated sports betting market, which officially went live on December 1, 2025. The launch was a massive success, with major national operators flooding the Show-Me State.

Mobile sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics, and ESPN BET are all live and accepting bets. This new market, overseen by the MGC, is projected to generate tens of millions in annual tax revenue for the state, primarily directed towards education funding.

The successful rollout of sports betting has, however, cast a spotlight on other forms of online wagering, most notably prediction markets.

How Are Prediction Markets Different From Sports Betting?

Understanding these differences is key to grasping the current situation in Missouri.

• Sports Betting: You bet against the_house_ (e.g., DraftKings, BetMGM) on a specific sporting event outcome. The odds are fixed by the operator. For example, you bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at whatever price the operator posts.

• Prediction Markets: You are not betting against the house. Instead, you buy and sell "yes" or "no" shares in the outcome of a future event. This functions more like a stock market. The price of a share, from $0.01 to $0.99, reflects the market's perceived probability of the event happening. If the event occurs, "yes" shares pay out at $1. If it doesn't, "no" shares pay out at $1. Your profit or loss comes from the price at which you bought your shares versus the final $1 or $0 payout.

Crucially, this structural difference is why prediction markets often fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission↗ (opens in a new tab) (CFTC) at the federal level, rather than state gaming commissions.

The MGC's "Wait-and-See" Approach

The Missouri Gaming Commission has been intensely focused on launching and stabilizing the new sports betting market. As of April 2026, the MGC has not issued any formal opinions, guidance, or enforcement actions related to prediction markets. This hands-off approach is common in states newly regulating sports wagering.

However, the topic has not gone unnoticed. Some state legislators have publicly raised concerns that unregulated prediction markets could potentially divert revenue from the newly licensed and taxed sports betting operators. They argue that if a platform allows wagers on outcomes, it should be subject to the same licensing standards, consumer protections, and taxes as the sportsbooks. For now, this remains a discussion point, not a formal legislative push.

Prediction Markets Available in Missouri (April 2026)

Despite the legal ambiguity, Missouri residents can currently access several prominent platforms:

• Kalshi: The leading CFTC-regulated exchange, offering a wide range of markets on everything from economic data and weather to award shows.
• Polymarket US: A popular crypto-based platform that recently launched a US-facing, regulated product.
• DraftKings Predictions & FanDuel Predicts: These are technically free-to-play contests that mimic prediction markets but do not involve real-money deposits or trading. They are offered as a way to engage users without crossing into CFTC territory.
• The OG.com: Another platform offering tradable event contracts.

What Can Missourians Trade On?

The appeal of these markets lies in the breadth of topics available. For Missouri sports fans, this means opportunities beyond simple win/loss bets. Potential markets could include:

• Kansas City Chiefs: Will the Chiefs finish the season with more than 12.5 wins? Will Patrick Mahomes throw for over 4,500 yards?
• St. Louis Cardinals: Will the Cardinals make the MLB playoffs? Will their total season attendance exceed 3 million?
• St. Louis Blues: Will the Blues acquire a new All-Star player before the trade deadline?
• Mizzou Tigers: Will the Mizzou football team be ranked in the final AP Top 25 poll?

Beyond sports, Missourians can trade on national and international events related to finance (e.g., "Will the Fed raise interest rates?"), politics (within CFTC limits), weather ("Will St. Louis see a white Christmas?"), and much more.

Tax Considerations for Missouri Traders

Winnings from prediction markets are taxable. The IRS↗ (opens in a new tab) has not issued guidance specific to CFTC-regulated event contracts. Tax professionals argue for gambling income, ordinary income or capital gains, or (more aggressively) Section 1256 60/40 treatment, and none has been confirmed. From 2026, gambling losses are deductible only up to 90% of losses, so the classification matters.

At the state level, these gains would be subject to Missouri's progressive income tax, with rates ranging from 2% to 4.95%, depending on your income bracket.

It is crucial to consult with a tax professional in Missouri to ensure proper reporting and compliance.

What could change the status

Dates we are watching: Nevada's responses to the Robinhood and Crypto.com Supreme Court petitions are now due November 13 and 16, 2026 (both extended in October), and Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition is due November 9, 2026 (deadlines can be extended); the earliest the Supreme Court could act on the petitions is a conference in December 2026 or January 2027 (our estimate, not a scheduled date). We re-check this page when any of these happen and log the change above.

Best Platforms Compared

Status in Missouri as of October 3, 2026

Platform	Status	Why (source)	Welcome offer in Missouri
Kalshi	Available, dispute pending	Kalshi accepts Missouri residents; Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $25 and Get $25!
Polymarket US	Available, dispute pending	Polymarket US accepts Missouri residents; Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
ProphetX	Available, dispute pending	ProphetX accepts Missouri residents; Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $50, Earn $75!
OG (by Crypto.com)	Available, dispute pending	OG accepts Missouri residents; Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Trade $25 Get $50 in Rewards! (New users only)
Novig	Available, dispute pending	Novig accepts Missouri residents; Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Deposit $10 Get $50 in Trade Credits!
Rebet	Available, dispute pending	Rebet is a sweepstakes app, not a CFTC-regulated exchange; its sweepstakes rules include Missouri. (source (opens in a new tab))	Valid: Get a 100% purchase match up to $100!

What changed (newest first)

• Sep 25, 2026 (federal) — Sixth Circuit rules against Kalshi in Ohio and Tennessee appeals. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit (opinion, Nos. 26-3196/26-5235) (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 18, 2026 — Missouri Attorney General orders six companies to halt sports event contracts. According to a press brief, the Attorney General sent letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood directing them to stop offering sports event contracts in Missouri. Source: CDC Gaming (brief) (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 11, 2026 (federal) — Crypto.com asks Supreme Court to review Ninth Circuit ruling (No. 26-344). Source: Supreme Court of the United States, docket No. 26-344 (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 10, 2026 (federal) — Kalshi seeks Ninth Circuit rehearing; Robinhood petitions Supreme Court. Source: Sports Betting Dime (opens in a new tab)
• Sep 2, 2026 (federal) — New Jersey asks U.S. Supreme Court to review Kalshi preemption ruling. Source: New Jersey Office of the Attorney General (opens in a new tab)
• Aug 28, 2026 (federal) — Ninth Circuit rules for Nevada regulators in Kalshi case. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (opinion, No. 25-7516) (opens in a new tab)
• Apr 6, 2026 (federal) — Third Circuit sides with Kalshi against New Jersey regulators. Source: U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit (opinion, No. 25-1922) (opens in a new tab)

Prediction markets in other states

• Alaska
• California
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Florida
• Hawaii
• Illinois
• Kansas
• Maryland
• Massachusetts
• Minnesota
• Nebraska
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• New York
• North Dakota
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• Texas
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Washington
• Wyoming
• Alabama
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• Delaware
• Georgia
• Idaho
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Maine
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• Montana
• Nevada
• New Mexico
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Puerto Rico
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Washington DC
• West Virginia
• Wisconsin

§ References & Sources

1. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (opens in a new tab)— U.S. federal regulator
2. CFTC Designated Contract Markets list (opens in a new tab)— CFTC
3. 26 U.S. Code § 1256 — Section 1256 contracts marked to market (opens in a new tab)— Cornell Law / U.S. Code
4. IRS Form 6781 — Gains and Losses From Section 1256 Contracts (opens in a new tab)— Internal Revenue Service
5. National Council on Problem Gambling — 1-800-GAMBLER (opens in a new tab)— NCPG

Frequently asked questions

Are prediction markets legal in Missouri?

We don't give legal verdicts, but here is the status as of October 3, 2026: Kalshi, Polymarket US, ProphetX, OG and Novig: Available, dispute pending. Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. Nationally, federal appeals courts are split on sports event contracts, all at the preliminary-injunction stage, and three Supreme Court petitions are pending; none has been granted.

Can I use Kalshi in Missouri?

Status as of October 3, 2026: Available, dispute pending. Kalshi accepts Missouri residents; Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. Kalshi's welcome offer (Trade $25 and Get $25!) applies to Missouri residents. Kalshi's minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+.

What has Missouri done about prediction markets?

Missouri's Attorney General told Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood in Sep 2026 to stop offering sports contracts; no court order was found. Most recent entries in our timeline: Sep 18, 2026: Missouri Attorney General orders six companies to halt sports event contracts. Each entry above links to its source.

What could change the status in Missouri?

Dates we are watching: Nevada's responses to the Robinhood and Crypto.com Supreme Court petitions are now due November 13 and 16, 2026 (both extended in October), and Kalshi's response to New Jersey's petition is due November 9, 2026 (deadlines can be extended); the earliest the Supreme Court could act on the petitions is a conference in December 2026 or January 2027 (our estimate, not a scheduled date). We re-check this page when any of these happen and log the change above.