How to Start Trading Prediction Markets in the US: Step-by-Step Guide
Getting started with prediction markets in the US takes less than 10 minutes. Here is exactly what to do.
Step 1: Choose Your Platform
For most US traders, Kalshi is the best starting point. It has the broadest market selection, deepest liquidity, and the strongest CFTC regulatory credentials. If you already use Robinhood for stocks or crypto, you can access prediction markets directly in the Robinhood app with no new account needed.
See our full platform rankings to compare all five options.
Step 2: Create Your Account
Visit your chosen platform and sign up with your email address. You will need to verify your identity with a government-issued ID — this is required by CFTC regulations, the same process used by stock brokers and futures exchanges.
Step 3: Deposit Funds
Kalshi accepts bank transfers with a minimum deposit of just $1. Robinhood users can use existing account balances. Most platforms process deposits within 1-3 business days for bank transfers.
Step 4: Find a Market
Browse available contracts by category. Good starting points for new traders:
- Major sports outcomes (high liquidity, easy to understand)
- Fed rate decision markets (clear resolution criteria, institutional participation)
- Upcoming election markets (lots of public information to analyze)
Step 5: Analyze the Contract
Before trading, ask yourself:
- What does the current price imply about probability? (67 cents = 67% chance)
- Do I think the market is mispriced?
- What information do I have that the market might not be pricing correctly?
Step 6: Place Your Trade
Select YES or NO, enter your position size, and review the contract terms before confirming. Start small — most experienced traders recommend never risking more than 1-5% of your total capital on a single contract.
Step 7: Manage Your Position
You can exit any position before resolution by selling at the current market price. Watch how the price moves as new information emerges. If your thesis changes, exit early rather than holding to an unfavorable resolution.
Tips for New Traders
- Start with markets you have genuine knowledge about
- Never trade on margin or with money you cannot afford to lose
- Use the bid-ask spread as a guide to liquidity — tight spreads mean active markets
- Keep records of your trades for tax purposes