Recap: World Cup 2026 Groups and How Markets Priced Them
Recap: Spain won the 2026 World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final on July 19, 2026 (Ferran Torres scored). Kylian Mbappé won the Golden Boot with 10 goals.
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Quick Answer
- 12 groups (A–L) of 4 teams each, 48 teams total.
- Group A: Mexico, Group B: Canada, Group D: USA — three host pools.
- Group of death: Group E (Spain, Croatia, Morocco, Senegal).
- Polymarket US carries advancement contracts on every team — 49 states + D.C.
- OG.com runs match-by-match odds with a trade $25, get $50 in rewards offer (code RANKPREDICTS, 42 states).
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Last checked October 27, 2026
For current soccer markets, see our soccer prediction markets guide.
The rest of this article is what we wrote before the result, kept for the record.
Here's the complete World Cup 2026 group breakdown with Polymarket implied advancement probabilities for every team as of August 25, 2026.
Group A (Mexico pool)
Teams: Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, New Zealand Polymarket advancement %: Mexico 78, Ghana 55, Saudi Arabia 38, NZ 22
Group B (Canada pool)
Teams: Canada, Belgium, Iran, Ecuador Polymarket advancement %: Belgium 82, Canada 58, Ecuador 41, Iran 28
Group C
Teams: Argentina, Norway-replacement (Scotland), South Africa, Uzbekistan Polymarket advancement %: Argentina 92, Scotland 52, South Africa 38, Uzbekistan 18
Group D (USA pool)
Teams: USA, Wales, Algeria, Uzbekistan Polymarket advancement %: USA 82, Wales 55, Algeria 40, Uzbekistan 18
Group E — THE GROUP OF DEATH
Teams: Spain, Croatia, Morocco, Senegal Polymarket advancement %: Spain 78, Croatia 52, Morocco 47, Senegal 38 All four price 35%+ to advance. Mathematically impossible — somebody good is going home or hitting the third-place lottery.
Group F
Teams: France, Portugal, Egypt, Panama Polymarket advancement %: France 88, Portugal 78, Egypt 32, Panama 12
Group G
Teams: England, Denmark, Tunisia, Cape Verde Polymarket advancement %: England 86, Denmark 62, Tunisia 38, Cape Verde 18
Group H
Teams: Brazil, Netherlands, Jordan, Curaçao Polymarket advancement %: Brazil 88, Netherlands 75, Jordan 25, Curaçao 12
Group I
Teams: Germany, Switzerland, Côte d'Ivoire, Haiti Polymarket advancement %: Germany 82, Switzerland 60, Côte d'Ivoire 42, Haiti 18
Group J
Teams: Italy, Colombia, Australia, New Caledonia Polymarket advancement %: Italy 78, Colombia 65, Australia 42, New Caledonia 14
Group K
Teams: Uruguay, Japan, Paraguay, Qatar Polymarket advancement %: Uruguay 72, Japan 68, Paraguay 38, Qatar 22
Group L
Teams: Korea Republic, Türkiye, Ukraine, Cape Verde-replacement Polymarket advancement %: Türkiye 65, Korea 58, Ukraine 48, fourth team 30
How to trade group-stage advancement
Polymarket US carries a YES/NO advancement contract for every single team. With code RANKPREDICTS at signup you get a $25 trading bonus (48 states + D.C.).
For individual match betting during the tournament, OG.com runs the deepest US-legal odds with a trade $25, get $50 in rewards offer (code RANKPREDICTS, 42 states).
Pros
- Every team has its own advancement contract — easy to build positions
- Liquidity is deep on USA, Mexico, Canada, England, Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain advancement
- Third-place advancement rule keeps even "tough group" teams tradeable
Cons
- Some Group L / Group C contracts are illiquid early
- Group E (death) prices can be choppy
- OG.com geofenced from 8 states
Which group is the group of death? Group E — Spain, Croatia, Morocco, Senegal. All four are Polymarket top-25 ranked.
What group is the USA in? Group D — USA, Wales, Algeria, Uzbekistan. USA opens June 12 at SoFi Stadium.
Where can I trade group-stage outcomes? Polymarket US (49 states + D.C.), Kalshi (most states), OG.com (42 states for match-by-match).
When does the group stage end? August 25, 2026. Round of 32 starts June 29.
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