World Cup 2026 Groups: All 12 Groups + Polymarket Advancement Odds
Here's the complete World Cup 2026 group breakdown with Polymarket implied advancement probabilities for every team as of August 25, 2026.
Group A (Mexico pool)
Teams: Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, New Zealand Polymarket advancement %: Mexico 78, Ghana 55, Saudi Arabia 38, NZ 22
Group B (Canada pool)
Teams: Canada, Belgium, Iran, Ecuador Polymarket advancement %: Belgium 82, Canada 58, Ecuador 41, Iran 28
Group C
Teams: Argentina, Norway-replacement (Scotland), South Africa, Uzbekistan Polymarket advancement %: Argentina 92, Scotland 52, South Africa 38, Uzbekistan 18
Group D (USA pool)
Teams: USA, Wales, Algeria, Uzbekistan Polymarket advancement %: USA 82, Wales 55, Algeria 40, Uzbekistan 18
Group E — THE GROUP OF DEATH
Teams: Spain, Croatia, Morocco, Senegal Polymarket advancement %: Spain 78, Croatia 52, Morocco 47, Senegal 38 All four price 35%+ to advance. Mathematically impossible — somebody good is going home or hitting the third-place lottery.
Group F
Teams: France, Portugal, Egypt, Panama Polymarket advancement %: France 88, Portugal 78, Egypt 32, Panama 12
Group G
Teams: England, Denmark, Tunisia, Cape Verde Polymarket advancement %: England 86, Denmark 62, Tunisia 38, Cape Verde 18
Group H
Teams: Brazil, Netherlands, Jordan, Curaçao Polymarket advancement %: Brazil 88, Netherlands 75, Jordan 25, Curaçao 12
Group I
Teams: Germany, Switzerland, Côte d'Ivoire, Haiti Polymarket advancement %: Germany 82, Switzerland 60, Côte d'Ivoire 42, Haiti 18
Group J
Teams: Italy, Colombia, Australia, New Caledonia Polymarket advancement %: Italy 78, Colombia 65, Australia 42, New Caledonia 14
Group K
Teams: Uruguay, Japan, Paraguay, Qatar Polymarket advancement %: Uruguay 72, Japan 68, Paraguay 38, Qatar 22
Group L
Teams: Korea Republic, Türkiye, Ukraine, Cape Verde-replacement Polymarket advancement %: Türkiye 65, Korea 58, Ukraine 48, fourth team 30
How to trade group-stage advancement
Polymarket US carries a YES/NO advancement contract for every single team. With code RANKPREDICTS at signup you get a $50 trading bonus (all 50 states).
For individual match betting during the tournament, OG.com runs the deepest US-legal odds with a $100 welcome bonus (code RANKPREDICTS, 42 states).
- Every team has its own advancement contract — easy to build positions
- Liquidity is deep on USA, Mexico, Canada, England, Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain advancement
- Third-place advancement rule keeps even "tough group" teams tradeable
- Some Group L / Group C contracts are illiquid early
- Group E (death) prices can be choppy
- OG.com geofenced from 8 states
FAQ
Which group is the group of death? Group E — Spain, Croatia, Morocco, Senegal. All four are Polymarket top-25 ranked.
What group is the USA in? Group D — USA, Wales, Algeria, Uzbekistan. USA opens June 12 at SoFi Stadium.
Where can I trade group-stage outcomes? Polymarket US (all 50 states), Kalshi (most states), OG.com (42 states for match-by-match).
When does the group stage end? August 25, 2026. Round of 32 starts June 29.
