When do election markets pay out? How 2026 midterm contracts settle

Kalshi: four of eight news calls

Kalshi says it doesn't call races itself. A race market settles when at least four of eight major news organizations, including the AP, have called it, with none disagreeing (Kalshi, 6 October 2026). If a race goes to a recount or a court challenge, the market stays open until the winner is sworn in.

Polymarket US: official results

On Polymarket US, the Senate control market's rules say the result comes from "relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States Senate", and the market resolves when the outcome is officially determined. The House market also uses state election authorities and the House itself, but its rule for a tied result is not the same as the Senate's, so read it before you trade.

Two details from the rules:

• Runoffs count, even when they're held after November.
• In the Senate market, if the parties split the seats evenly, control goes to the party that holds half the seats and the vice presidency.

Individual race markets can use different sources, so check the rules box on each market.

What this means on 3 November

• Clear races: often called the same night, so Kalshi race markets can settle soon after the calls come in.
• Close races: calls can take days, and recounts can take weeks. Your money stays in the position until settlement, unless you sell earlier at the market price.
• Chamber control: may depend on late calls, runoffs or recounts in a few states, so it can settle later than the single races.
• Selling before settlement: you don't have to wait. You can sell at the current price at any time while the market is open.

For the races and markets to watch, see our guide to trading the 2026 midterms. For one close race, see the Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico (opens in a new tab).

Where you can trade the midterms

• Kalshi (opens in a new tab): a US-regulated (CFTC) exchange with a wide range of markets, including Senate, House and governor races.
• Polymarket US (opens in a new tab): sports, politics and culture markets in US dollars, including Senate and House control.
• OG (opens in a new tab): event contracts from Crypto.com, where it lists election markets. OG's welcome offer covers 42 states plus D.C.

Availability depends on your state. The platforms' minimum age is 18; we recommend 21+. Trading involves risk; you can lose what you put in.

Sources

• Kalshi, "Kalshi launches transparency features for 2026 midterm election markets" (6 October 2026)
• Polymarket US, U.S. Senate Midterm Winner, market rules (checked 27 October 2026)
• Polymarket US, U.S. House Midterm Winner, market rules (checked 27 October 2026)

Frequently asked questions

When does Kalshi pay out on election markets?

When at least four of eight major news organizations, including the AP, have called the race and none disagree. If there's a recount or a legal challenge, the market stays open until the winner is sworn in.

How does Polymarket US settle Senate and House control?

On results from state election authorities and the Senate or House itself, once the outcome is officially determined. Runoffs after November count.

Can I get out before a race is called?

Yes. While the market is open, you can sell your contracts at the current price instead of waiting for settlement.