Next French President 2027 Odds: Le Pen, Bardella and Polymarket
Prices below are an earlier snapshot, not live. For current prices, check the live market on Polymarket.
Polymarket US · Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
RANKPREDICTSClaim (opens in a new tab)21+ · T&Cs apply
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Quick Answer
- Polymarket runs both 'Next French President' and 'Will Macron resign' markets.
- Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella (RN) lead the centrist field on current pricing.
- Macron's 2027 term expiry is the structural backdrop — no early election required.
- US traders can take French political contracts on Polymarket US.
- Useful for Americans following the euro, French equity markets, or planning travel.
Polymarket US · Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus!
RANKPREDICTS
Claim on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Last checked October 27, 2026
If you've been following French politics — or you're an American planning a Paris trip and curious what the elections might bring — Polymarket has the cleanest real-time pricing available. The "Next French President" market covers the 2027 race plus any earlier scenario.
The shape of the race
| Candidate | Polymarket implied % | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen (RN) | 28% | Court eligibility ruling pending |
| Jordan Bardella (RN) | 22% | RN backup if Le Pen disqualified |
| Edouard Philippe (centre-right) | 15% | Former PM, polling well |
| Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) | 9% | Macron's pick of successor |
| Raphaël Glucksmann (centre-left) | 6% | Best-polling left option |
| Others | 20% | Long tail |
Numbers shift weekly. Le Pen's eligibility ruling is the single biggest swing factor.
The Le Pen eligibility question
A 2024 court ruling barred Le Pen from running for public office, pending appeal. The appeal decision is expected late 2026. Polymarket has run a separate contract on her appeal — currently pricing roughly 55% she runs in 2027.
If she's eligible, she's likely the RN candidate. If not, Bardella takes the slot — and combined RN probability stays at 50%+.
Why Americans should care
Three reasons:
- Euro/dollar implications. French political risk reliably moves the euro 2-4% on major election news.
- EU policy direction. A Le Pen or Bardella win would dramatically shift EU stance on Ukraine, NATO, and Russia sanctions.
- Travel and visa considerations. Anyone planning extended European trips post-2027 should track the politics that shape Schengen-area policy.
How to trade
Polymarket US is the only US-legal venue with French political contracts. Position sizes should be small — long-dated political markets are notoriously volatile.
Pros
- One of the best-priced European political contracts available to US retail
- Multiple sub-contracts (winner, runoff makeup, party of next president) for flexibility
- Genuine information asymmetry for traders who follow French media
Bottom line
The French 2027 race is one of the most genuinely uncertain political contests in Europe. Polymarket is the only place US traders can take a meaningful position on it. Wait for the Le Pen eligibility ruling for the biggest single-event price move.
Frequently asked questions
Can US traders bet on French elections?
Yes, on Polymarket US — CFTC-regulated, 49 states + D.C.
When is the 2027 election?
First round in April 2027, runoff in May 2027 (presuming standard French electoral calendar).
Could Macron run again?
No. He's serving his second term and is constitutionally term-limited.
Why so many candidates priced under 10%?
French presidential races are multi-round with high candidate fragmentation. The first round routinely sees 10+ candidates.
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
