Recap: The USA's 2026 World Cup Run and the Markets

Quick Answer

The USMNT reached the Round of 16 and lost 4-1 to Belgium in Seattle.
Spain won the 2026 World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final on July 19, 2026.
For live soccer markets, see our soccer prediction markets guide.

For current soccer markets, see our soccer prediction markets guide.

The rest of this article is what we wrote before the result, kept for the record.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first one ever held primarily in the United States — 78 of the 104 matches are on US soil — and the first World Cup Americans can legally trade as CFTC-regulated event contracts on Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and DraftKings Predictions.

This page is the live, sourced summary of where the USMNT sits in the bracket, every USA match in the group stage, and what the prediction markets are pricing for each milestone.

USA in the 2026 World Cup group draw

The USMNT was drawn into Group D alongside three other nations. As one of three host countries, USA was an automatic top seed and avoided a pot-1 European draw.

| Group D | FIFA Rank | Kalshi to advance |

|---|---|---|

| United States (host) | 14 | 78% |

| Opponent 2 | 28 | 62% |

| Opponent 3 | 41 | 38% |

| Opponent 4 | 53 | 22% |

(Group composition reflects December 2025 draw. Update planned for June 1 squad announcement.)

USA group-stage schedule

|---|---|---|---|

Round of 32 (USA path) starts June 28. Final at MetLife Stadium July 19, 2026.

Live USA prediction market odds (August 25, 2026)

To advance from Group D

Kalshi: 78%
Polymarket: 76%
Robinhood: 79%

To reach the quarterfinal

Kalshi: 24%
Polymarket: 22%
Robinhood: 25%

To reach the semifinal

Kalshi: 9%
Polymarket: 8%

To win the 2026 World Cup outright

Kalshi: 3%
Polymarket: 4%

Kalshi and Polymarket were pricing in a small host-nation premium for the USA at the time of this snapshot.

Why the USA is priced higher than the FIFA ranking suggests

Three factors stack:

Host advantage. No travel between matches (all three group games are domestic), home crowds at SoFi, AT&T and MetLife, and zero jet lag.
Squad depth. Pulisic, Reyna, Pepi, McKennie and Adams are all in their peak years. Goalkeeper depth (Turner, Steffen) is the best in USMNT history.
Manager. Mauricio Pochettino's tournament pedigree (PSG, Spurs Champions League final) is reflected in the price.

Why USA is still a 3% pick to win

The USA has never reached a World Cup semifinal in the modern era (the 1930 third-place finish was a 13-team tournament). To win in 2026 requires four straight knockout-round wins against teams ranked higher than the USMNT. Markets price this realistically.

Can Americans bet on the World Cup?

Yes — World Cup event contracts are available on every major US-licensed prediction market. Unlike NFL or NBA contracts, which are voluntarily geofenced in roughly a dozen states pending state-level sports-betting litigation, international tournament contracts are not geofenced the way league sports contracts are (platform-level exclusions such as Nevada still apply).

| Platform | World Cup contracts available | State restrictions |

|---|---|---|

| Kalshi | Yes — full board | None for international tournaments |

| Polymarket | Yes — global liquidity | None |

Robinhood	Yes — limited board	None
FanDuel Predicts	Yes	Geofenced in states with active sportsbook licenses

See our full prediction market state-by-state guide →

How to trade USA-specific markets

The USA outright winner contract (3-4¢) is a long-shot — fun to hold for a tournament-long sweat, but not a serious value play. The two markets that are usually mispriced and worth attention:

USA to advance from group (~78%). Tight spreads on Kalshi, ~2¢ wide. Good for traders who think the group draw is favorable.
USA to reach the quarterfinal (~24%). Wider spreads, more variance. Polymarket has historically priced this 2-3 points higher than Kalshi during the group stage.

Where to watch (and trade) in the host cities

If you're traveling to a USA match:

Los Angeles (June 12): SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. Closest legal off-stadium prediction-market access via Kalshi/Polymarket app on your phone.
Dallas (June 18): AT&T Stadium, Arlington. Same — mobile app trading legal in TX.
NYC/NJ (June 24): MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. NJ is the strongest pro-prediction-market state in the country (Third Circuit injunction protects platforms from state interference).

Mexico and Canada: the other two hosts

Mexico opens the tournament at Estadio Azteca on June 11. Canada plays its group games in Toronto and Vancouver. Mexico is priced at 2% to win on Kalshi (host-nation bump from a baseline ~1%), Canada at 0.5%.

Responsible trading reminder

Tournament outright contracts are high-variance. The USA's 3% price reflects realistic dark-horse odds — meaning 97% of the time it loses. Set conservative position sizes. National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-522-4700.

Sources

FIFA, "FIFA World Cup 2026 official schedule," fifa.com
Kalshi event contracts, "USMNT to advance from group" and "USA to win World Cup" markets
Polymarket, "USA World Cup 2026 outcome" market
FIFA World Cup 2026 results, fifa.com

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Offer terms

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.